Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 10498 45438 335 97 365 476
January 30 2021 10530 45592 336 98 353 471
January 31 2021 10554 45664 338 98 321 448
February 01 2021 10583 45713 338 98 312 459
February 02 2021 10597 45798 337 98 286 464
February 03 2021 10637 45852 338 98 287 460
February 04 2021 10672 45956 340 98 302 439
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.7 6.6% 20 0.17% 33 0.29%
10-19 2 4.3 13.2% 40 0.29% 60 0.44%
20-29 13 7.9 24.5% 74 0.35% 104 0.5%
30-39 6 3.6 14.2% 43 0.32% 62 0.46%
40-49 2 3.6 13.2% 40 0.38% 53 0.51%
50-59 2 2.3 10.9% 33 0.26% 48 0.38%
60-69 2 2.4 8.9% 27 0.23% 42 0.36%
70+ 7 2.4 8.3% 25 0.24% 37 0.35%
All ages 35 28.1 100% 302 0.29% 439 0.42%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 6787 26781 203 79 244 333
January 30 2021 6801 26841 204 80 241 317
January 31 2021 6822 26892 204 80 223 309
February 01 2021 6833 26922 205 80 191 299
February 02 2021 6833 26966 205 80 176 290
February 03 2021 6863 27042 207 83 182 303
February 04 2021 6871 27099 208 84 178 272
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 7.9% 14 0.18% 19 0.24%
10-19 3 1.7 10.7% 19 0.23% 34 0.4%
20-29 0 2.1 14% 25 0.35% 38 0.53%
30-39 1 2.4 18% 32 0.38% 46 0.55%
40-49 1 1.7 12.9% 23 0.3% 42 0.54%
50-59 2 2.9 17.4% 31 0.32% 41 0.42%
60-69 0 1.6 8.4% 15 0.18% 23 0.27%
70+ 0 1.3 10.7% 19 0.27% 29 0.41%
All ages 8 14.6 100% 178 0.28% 272 0.42%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 5108 17900 217 69 195 268
January 30 2021 5122 17929 217 71 193 261
January 31 2021 5134 17970 217 71 184 245
February 01 2021 5134 17979 217 71 150 223
February 02 2021 5135 18003 217 71 129 222
February 03 2021 5147 18055 217 71 123 218
February 04 2021 5163 18101 218 72 127 213
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.4 4.7% 6 0.11% 8 0.15%
10-19 1 1.1 12.6% 16 0.29% 25 0.46%
20-29 3 1.7 13.4% 17 0.38% 30 0.66%
30-39 0 0.7 11% 14 0.26% 24 0.44%
40-49 1 1.1 14.2% 18 0.36% 31 0.62%
50-59 4 2.4 18.9% 24 0.35% 38 0.56%
60-69 1 1.4 11.8% 15 0.24% 29 0.46%
70+ 5 1.9 13.4% 17 0.27% 28 0.44%
All ages 16 10.9 100% 127 0.28% 213 0.47%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 11647 48927 330 71 545 687
January 30 2021 11687 49068 331 72 524 682
January 31 2021 11728 49148 331 73 535 703
February 01 2021 11753 49242 333 73 536 675
February 02 2021 11774 49361 339 74 495 672
February 03 2021 11815 49522 340 74 516 652
February 04 2021 11843 49643 341 74 461 650
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 3.1 7.4% 34 0.29% 42 0.36%
10-19 2 8.4 16.1% 74 0.45% 125 0.76%
20-29 10 13.3 23.2% 107 0.5% 163 0.77%
30-39 2 7.1 15% 69 0.51% 86 0.63%
40-49 5 5.0 12.4% 57 0.42% 78 0.57%
50-59 3 5.0 11.3% 52 0.37% 72 0.51%
60-69 3 3.9 8.5% 39 0.27% 49 0.35%
70+ 3 2.7 6.3% 29 0.22% 35 0.27%
All ages 28 48.6 100% 461 0.39% 650 0.55%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 37707 311398 1139 245 1144 1581
January 30 2021 37848 311926 1146 251 1259 1551
January 31 2021 37949 312511 1151 251 1203 1516
February 01 2021 38020 312912 1152 251 1076 1498
February 02 2021 38085 312902 1157 251 1007 1522
February 03 2021 38164 313016 1162 251 971 1575
February 04 2021 38372 313667 1162 256 1087 1626
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 11 4.3 5.2% 57 0.09% 80 0.13%
10-19 61 23.9 19.8% 215 0.3% 285 0.4%
20-29 63 34.4 30.4% 330 0.32% 448 0.43%
30-39 17 12.1 11.6% 126 0.16% 225 0.29%
40-49 15 10.7 10.5% 114 0.17% 183 0.28%
50-59 29 13.7 12.8% 139 0.21% 218 0.33%
60-69 9 7.3 6.8% 74 0.14% 117 0.21%
70+ 3 3.9 2.9% 32 0.07% 70 0.14%
All ages 208 110.3 100% 1087 0.2% 1626 0.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 29 2021 539915 2498517 24154 5860 15513 21664
January 30 2021 541408 2503387 24243 5893 15484 21220
January 31 2021 542415 2507600 24298 5896 14314 20621
February 01 2021 543165 2510670 24337 5897 12994 20288
February 02 2021 544260 2512757 24460 5937 12408 19858
February 03 2021 545437 2517446 24554 5951 12466 19513
February 04 2021 546955 2523102 24634 5992 13038 18854
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 89 75.0 6.2% 803 0.13% 1164 0.18%
10-19 224 170.3 13.4% 1750 0.23% 2493 0.33%
20-29 272 198.4 15.9% 2069 0.27% 2979 0.39%
30-39 224 177.7 14.5% 1891 0.25% 2779 0.37%
40-49 200 173.0 14.4% 1883 0.27% 2653 0.38%
50-59 211 173.7 14.5% 1888 0.23% 2757 0.34%
60-69 179 141.9 11.4% 1481 0.2% 2174 0.29%
70+ 119 119.6 9.8% 1273 0.2% 1855 0.29%
All ages 1518 1229.6 100% 13038 0.22% 18854 0.32%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 – urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
42 44.1 49.7 28.1 34.9 23.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
42.1 14.6 24 21.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
47.1 10.9 19.3 25.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
55 75.5 76.6 48.6 39.1 26.7%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
29.7 40.1 43.1 110.3 108.6 20.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
32.4 32.9 39.4 1229.6 1596.7 22.3%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5111"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red