Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 10498 | 45438 | 335 | 97 | 365 | 476 |
| January 30 2021 | 10530 | 45592 | 336 | 98 | 353 | 471 |
| January 31 2021 | 10554 | 45664 | 338 | 98 | 321 | 448 |
| February 01 2021 | 10583 | 45713 | 338 | 98 | 312 | 459 |
| February 02 2021 | 10597 | 45798 | 337 | 98 | 286 | 464 |
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 6.6% | 20 | 0.17% | 33 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.3 | 13.2% | 40 | 0.29% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 7.9 | 24.5% | 74 | 0.35% | 104 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.6 | 14.2% | 43 | 0.32% | 62 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.6 | 13.2% | 40 | 0.38% | 53 | 0.51% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.3 | 10.9% | 33 | 0.26% | 48 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.4 | 8.9% | 27 | 0.23% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.4 | 8.3% | 25 | 0.24% | 37 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 35 | 28.1 | 100% | 302 | 0.29% | 439 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 6787 | 26781 | 203 | 79 | 244 | 333 |
| January 30 2021 | 6801 | 26841 | 204 | 80 | 241 | 317 |
| January 31 2021 | 6822 | 26892 | 204 | 80 | 223 | 309 |
| February 01 2021 | 6833 | 26922 | 205 | 80 | 191 | 299 |
| February 02 2021 | 6833 | 26966 | 205 | 80 | 176 | 290 |
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 7.9% | 14 | 0.18% | 19 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.7 | 10.7% | 19 | 0.23% | 34 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.1 | 14% | 25 | 0.35% | 38 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.4 | 18% | 32 | 0.38% | 46 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.7 | 12.9% | 23 | 0.3% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.9 | 17.4% | 31 | 0.32% | 41 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.6 | 8.4% | 15 | 0.18% | 23 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 10.7% | 19 | 0.27% | 29 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 8 | 14.6 | 100% | 178 | 0.28% | 272 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 5108 | 17900 | 217 | 69 | 195 | 268 |
| January 30 2021 | 5122 | 17929 | 217 | 71 | 193 | 261 |
| January 31 2021 | 5134 | 17970 | 217 | 71 | 184 | 245 |
| February 01 2021 | 5134 | 17979 | 217 | 71 | 150 | 223 |
| February 02 2021 | 5135 | 18003 | 217 | 71 | 129 | 222 |
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 4.7% | 6 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.1 | 12.6% | 16 | 0.29% | 25 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.7 | 13.4% | 17 | 0.38% | 30 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 11% | 14 | 0.26% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 14.2% | 18 | 0.36% | 31 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.4 | 18.9% | 24 | 0.35% | 38 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.4 | 11.8% | 15 | 0.24% | 29 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 5 | 1.9 | 13.4% | 17 | 0.27% | 28 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 16 | 10.9 | 100% | 127 | 0.28% | 213 | 0.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 11647 | 48927 | 330 | 71 | 545 | 687 |
| January 30 2021 | 11687 | 49068 | 331 | 72 | 524 | 682 |
| January 31 2021 | 11728 | 49148 | 331 | 73 | 535 | 703 |
| February 01 2021 | 11753 | 49242 | 333 | 73 | 536 | 675 |
| February 02 2021 | 11774 | 49361 | 339 | 74 | 495 | 672 |
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.1 | 7.4% | 34 | 0.29% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 8.4 | 16.1% | 74 | 0.45% | 125 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 13.3 | 23.2% | 107 | 0.5% | 163 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 7.1 | 15% | 69 | 0.51% | 86 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.0 | 12.4% | 57 | 0.42% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5.0 | 11.3% | 52 | 0.37% | 72 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.9 | 8.5% | 39 | 0.27% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.7 | 6.3% | 29 | 0.22% | 35 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 28 | 48.6 | 100% | 461 | 0.39% | 650 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 37707 | 311398 | 1139 | 245 | 1144 | 1581 |
| January 30 2021 | 37848 | 311926 | 1146 | 251 | 1259 | 1551 |
| January 31 2021 | 37949 | 312511 | 1151 | 251 | 1203 | 1516 |
| February 01 2021 | 38020 | 312912 | 1152 | 251 | 1076 | 1498 |
| February 02 2021 | 38085 | 312902 | 1157 | 251 | 1007 | 1522 |
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 4.3 | 5.2% | 57 | 0.09% | 80 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 61 | 23.9 | 19.8% | 215 | 0.3% | 285 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 63 | 34.4 | 30.4% | 330 | 0.32% | 448 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 12.1 | 11.6% | 126 | 0.16% | 225 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 10.7 | 10.5% | 114 | 0.17% | 183 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 13.7 | 12.8% | 139 | 0.21% | 218 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 7.3 | 6.8% | 74 | 0.14% | 117 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.9 | 2.9% | 32 | 0.07% | 70 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 208 | 110.3 | 100% | 1087 | 0.2% | 1626 | 0.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29 2021 | 539915 | 2498517 | 24154 | 5860 | 15513 | 21664 |
| January 30 2021 | 541408 | 2503387 | 24243 | 5893 | 15484 | 21220 |
| January 31 2021 | 542415 | 2507600 | 24298 | 5896 | 14314 | 20621 |
| February 01 2021 | 543165 | 2510670 | 24337 | 5897 | 12994 | 20288 |
| February 02 2021 | 544260 | 2512757 | 24460 | 5937 | 12408 | 19858 |
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 89 | 75.0 | 6.2% | 803 | 0.13% | 1164 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 224 | 170.3 | 13.4% | 1750 | 0.23% | 2493 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 272 | 198.4 | 15.9% | 2069 | 0.27% | 2979 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 224 | 177.7 | 14.5% | 1891 | 0.25% | 2779 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 200 | 173.0 | 14.4% | 1883 | 0.27% | 2653 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 211 | 173.7 | 14.5% | 1888 | 0.23% | 2757 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 179 | 141.9 | 11.4% | 1481 | 0.2% | 2174 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 119 | 119.6 | 9.8% | 1273 | 0.2% | 1855 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 1518 | 1229.6 | 100% | 13038 | 0.22% | 18854 | 0.32% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 44.1 | 49.7 | 28.1 | 34.9 | 23.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42.1 | 14.6 | 24 | 21.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.1 | 10.9 | 19.3 | 25.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 75.5 | 76.6 | 48.6 | 39.1 | 26.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.7 | 40.1 | 43.1 | 110.3 | 108.6 | 20.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.4 | 32.9 | 39.4 | 1229.6 | 1596.7 | 22.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5111"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges